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Prediction for CME (2023-02-15T02:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-15T02:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23770/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2023-02-14T14:23Z to 2023-02-15T09:23Z. This eruption is associated with a C5.6 flare from AR 13220 and an eruption best seen in SDO AIA 304 starting around 2023-02-15T01:00Z centered around S05E15. The eruption can also be seen with dimming in SDO AIA 193. This CME leading edge is asymmetrical and has a component directed towards the south/southeast first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-02-15T02:48Z while the rest of the CME starting at 02:12Z is directed more eastward. This eruption may be 2 simultaneous eruptions in close proximity but it is not clear if there are separate CMEs.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-17T21:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2023 Feb 15 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity
...

A partial halo CME was observed in C2 imagery beginning near 15/0200
UTC. This appears to be associated with a filament eruption near Region
3220 and an area of dimming in the area north of the region that can be
seen in SDO/AIA 193 imagery. Initial analysis suggests the ejecta is
very likely to impact Earth. Additional modeling is ongoing to determine
the timing of arrival.

...

Lead Time: 51.23 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2023-02-15T17:46Z

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